Worst case vs Best case
Computed live from your current inputs and risk register — Stress (worst) and Upside (best), independent of the scenario buttons above so you always see both at once.
Worst case —
Best case —
Cost structure
Revenue by stream
P&L
Risk snapshot
Y1 cash
Tornado ±15%
Multi-year projection (merged)
Same engine as the Projection tab — growth, price, labor, and occupancy escalation from menu-driven year-1 base.
| Year | Revenue | COGS | Labor | Occupancy | Other | Op. profit | After tax | Cumulative |
|---|
Quick comparison
| Location | Rate ($/SF/yr, all-in) | South Indian fit | Contact / next step |
|---|---|---|---|
| Herndon — Elden St | $42–65 | Strongest | Herndon Centre I leasing — ask to subdivide the 2,025 SF unit |
| Brambleton Town Center | $47 (confirmed quote) | Good | Contact listing broker for current availability |
| Ashburn Farm Village Ctr | $44–60 (comp) | Good | Call center management re: small-unit availability |
| Chantilly Crossing (bonus) | Not found | Strong signal | Leasing office not yet contacted |
| Sterling — Countryside/Rt 28 | $20–40 confirmed, up to $75 newer | Weak–moderate | Regal Center or Sterling Village Center leasing |
| Sterling — Dulles Town Center (mall kiosk) | Not published | Weak | Uma@Dulles-Mall.com · 703-576-7655 |
| One Loudoun (Ashburn kiosk) | Est. $1,500–3,500/mo kiosk; $32/SF/yr inline comp | Moderate | oneloudoun.com · leasing via SHOP Companies Dallas |
| Reston | $40–55+ (comp) | Weak | Reston Town Center leasing office — not yet contacted |
| Tysons Corner Center (ruled out) | Est. $3,500–7,000+/mo kiosk | Not a fit | Macerich specialty leasing — likely Starbucks exclusivity conflict |
Herndon — Elden Street corridor Top pick
Sai Saravana Bhavan and A2B (Adyar Ananda Bhavan) — both South Indian restaurants — already operate here, right next to Lotte Plaza Market. This is the strongest proven-demand signal of any area researched.
| Herndon Centre I | 494 Elden Street — 2,995 SF and 2,025 SF available per the current leasing plan; ask about subdividing down to 500–800 SF |
| 1040 Elden Street | ~1,404–2,000 SF at $30–42/SF/yr |
| General Elden St rate | $42–55/SF/yr, up to $65/SF/yr for small premium spots |
| Anchors nearby | Lotte Plaza Market, Sai Saravana Bhavan, A2B |
Brambleton Town Center
Newer, walkable town-center retail; adjacent to the South Riding/Chantilly South Asian corridor.
| Confirmed quote | $37.50/SF/yr base + $9.50/SF/yr NNN pass-throughs = $47.00/SF/yr all-in, seen on 3,921 SF and 1,989 SF units |
| At 500–800 sq ft | ~$1,960–3,133/month |
Ashburn — Ashburn Farm Village / Market Center
Patel Brothers (Indian grocery, ~27,000 SF, former Global Foods space) and Delhi 6 Indian restaurant already anchor this center — strong general Indian foot traffic, though more North-Indian/pan-Indian than South-Indian-specific.
| Listed rate | "Contact for pricing" on the exact center |
| Comparable Ashburn centers | Broadlands, Schooler Plaza, Junction Plaza quoting $35–48/SF/yr base + $9–12/SF/yr NNN ≈ $44–60/SF/yr all-in |
Chantilly Crossing Bonus — not one of your original 5 areas
Near Route 50 & Lee Road, close to Costco/Target. Saravanaa Bhavan (the global South Indian chain) opened here, and a reviewer specifically praised their filter coffee — a direct demand signal for your exact concept.
| Rate | Not found — leasing office not yet contacted |
Sterling
| Countryside / Route 28 corridor | $16.50–38.00/SF/yr (older strip centers) |
| Cascades Overlook | ~$45–75/SF/yr (newer center) |
| Regal Center, 20921 Davenport Dr | Ste 120, 6,500 SF confirmed at $40/SF/yr NNN; also 3,900 SF "upon request." Near Bonchon, Sushi Mori, Starbucks |
| Sterling Village Center, 22034 Shaw Rd | 2,000–5,500 SF at $20–27/SF/yr. Tenant: NVA Thai Indoor Market |
| Dulles Town Center (enclosed mall) | Dedicated "Kiosk/Cart Space" amenity. Managed by Centennial Real Estate Management. National leasing: Leasing@Dulles-Mall.com · 703-839-3522 Local leasing & pop-ups: Uma@Dulles-Mall.com · 703-576-7655 Event tours: DColeman@CentennialREC.com · 703-404-7105 |
One Loudoun (Ashburn) — kiosk option
| Address | Downtown One Loudoun, 20365 Exchange Street, Suite 211, Ashburn, VA 20147 |
| Ownership / leasing | Kite Realty Group; leasing via SHOP Companies Dallas; oneloudoun.com |
| Kiosk program | 180 sq ft container-style units, AC/heat/signage included, minimum 3-month lease. Exact current pricing not published — estimated $1,500–3,500/month based on typical lifestyle-center kiosk rates |
| Inline retail comp | 44715 Brimfield Drive, 1,924 SF at $32.00/SF/yr full service; regular units start at ~1,299 SF minimum |
| Fit note | Broad affluent Loudoun County crowd, not specifically South-Indian-concentrated |
Reston
Reston Town Center is outdoor lifestyle retail with mostly "contact for pricing" listings and no confirmed kiosk program. Comparable to Herndon rates but without a confirmed South Indian anchor.
| Estimated rate | $40–55+/SF/yr (comp to Herndon), higher in the Town Center core |
Tysons Corner Center Ruled out
Included for reference since it was explored and rejected. High cost, broad non-South-Indian-specific audience, and likely exclusivity conflict with an existing Starbucks tenant for a competing coffee kiosk.
| Estimated kiosk cost | $3,500–7,000+/month base, upper end of national kiosk range given premium mall tier, plus CAM |
| Leasing | Managed by Macerich; kiosks go through specialty leasing, not general retail listings |
Why consider this at all
A trailer or an on-demand rental lets you show up at Elden Street one weekend and Chantilly Crossing the next — actually testing which location wins before committing to a 5-year lease, without the capital a full truck purchase requires.
Trailer options (to own)
| Option | New | Used | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Small coffee cart / kiosk trailer | $8,000–$25,000 | $3,000–$12,000 | Best fit for filter coffee — brewing urns, milk boiler, small fridge. No fryers or hoods needed, so this tier is genuinely enough. |
| Basic shell (12–16 ft) | $25,000–$45,000 | $6,000–$25,000 | Bare trailer; you add your own equipment — more capacity than you likely need |
| Mid-range equipped (16–20 ft) | $45,000–$85,000 | $20,000–$55,000 | Built for full hot-food menus — overkill for a filter-coffee-only concept |
You'll also need a tow vehicle (a truck, SUV, or van with adequate towing capacity) if you don't already own one — the trailer itself has no engine.
Renting a truck on-demand (no purchase at all)
Since you're planning to rent rather than buy, this is likely your actual path — no trailer to store, tow, or maintain. You just book a truck for the days you want to operate.
| Option | Cost | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Self-operated rental (you run it) | $300–$1,800/day, typically $500–$1,000/day | Comes with basic kitchen equipment already installed; you bring staff and ingredients |
| Turnkey rental (their staff runs it) | $2,000–$4,000/day | Not what you need — you're operating it yourself |
| Setup/cleaning fee | $100–$1,000 per booking | Charged on top of the day rate by most rental operators |
| Monthly lease (if you rent steadily) | $2,000–$3,000/month | Worth it once you're renting more than ~2–3 days/week regularly |
Search "food truck rental [your area]" or "commissary + truck rental Northern Virginia" — this is typically arranged through local commissary kitchens or truck-rental fleets rather than a national platform, so it's worth a few direct calls to compare.
Realistic startup budget for this path
| Category | Owning a small trailer | Renting on-demand |
|---|---|---|
| Trailer / truck | $3,000–$25,000 (used cart-size trailer) | $0 upfront — pay per day used |
| Coffee equipment (if not already on the trailer) | $2,000–$8,000 | Usually included with rental |
| Permits & licenses, both counties (see below) | $500–$2,000 | $500–$2,000 |
| Insurance (first year) | $1,000–$4,000 | Often covered by rental company — confirm |
| Initial inventory | $1,000–$3,000 | $1,000–$3,000 |
| Working capital reserve | $5,000–$10,000 | $3,000–$6,000 |
| Realistic all-in total | $12,000–$50,000 | $5,000–$15,000 to start, then $500–$1,000 per operating day |
The general process (applies everywhere)
- Get a Virginia Department of Health Food Establishment Permit through your county's health department — required before you can legally operate
- Secure a licensed commissary kitchen — almost every Virginia health department requires food trucks to be based out of an approved commissary, not a home kitchen
- Get your vending-location permit(s) — the requirement differs by county and by where you plan to park (right-of-way, private property, or a park)
- Get a county business license (BPOL)
- Carry liability insurance — right-of-way vending typically requires $1,000,000 per-occurrence minimum
- Pass your truck's health and fire inspection before your permit is issued
Fairfax County — process, fees & links
| Health Establishment Permit | $80 fee. Apply at 10777 Main Street, Suite 111, Fairfax, VA 22030 · 703-246-2444 fairfaxcounty.gov/health/permits/mobile-food-unit |
| Right-of-way vending (VDOT zones) | Mobile Food Vending Zone Agreement Download the agreement (PDF) |
| Private property (e.g. a shopping center) | Needs two permits: Food Truck Location Permit ($140, filed by the property owner) + Food Truck Operation Permit ($140, filed by you). Both submitted through the PLUS portal. plus.fairfaxcounty.gov · Zoning Admin: 703-324-1314 |
| Fairfax County Parks | Mobile Food Vendor Permit, $150 per park requested, awarded competitively (not guaranteed). Park Services Division: 703-324-8700 Application form (PDF) |
| Solicitor's License | Required per employee who interacts with customers — $35 each. Dept. of Cable & Consumer Services: 703-324-5966 |
| Key operating rules | Max 4 hours/day at any one location (incl. setup/teardown); max 1 truck on lots under 25,000 sq ft (3 max on bigger lots); can't block fire lanes or parking; can't be stored on residential property when not in use. Rules updated under Zoning Ordinance amendment ZO-112.2-2025-11. |
| Full overview page | fairfaxcounty.gov/planning-development/zoning/food-trucks |
Loudoun County — process, fees & links
| Health permit | Virginia Dept. of Health Food Permit (a yellow sticker), renewed annually through the Loudoun County Health Department. 1 Harrison Street S.E., Leesburg, VA 20177 · 703-777-0234 |
| Application forms | Apply for a Mobile Food Unit Permit Apply for a Mobile Food Unit Plan Review (PDF) Mobile Unit Plan Review Guidelines (PDF) |
| Zoning / where you can park | Loudoun regulates food truck parking by zoning district too, through an administrative permit from the Zoning Administrator. This part is less centralized online than Fairfax's PLUS portal — call Loudoun County Zoning directly to confirm requirements for your specific site before you commit to a location. |
| Overview page | loudoun.gov/5293/Mobile-Food-Unit |
Honest note: Fairfax publishes a very complete, step-by-step process with a clear online portal. Loudoun's health-permit side is well documented, but its private-property zoning process isn't as fully spelled out online — treat the zoning contact call as a required step, not optional.
Trailer / on-demand rental vs. your brick-and-mortar plan
| Small trailer or on-demand rental | Herndon storefront (current plan) | |
|---|---|---|
| Startup capital | $5,000–$50,000 depending on path | Much lower ongoing cost since Herndon rent/CAM is only ~$3,400/month, but higher upfront buildout |
| Can test multiple locations | Yes — Herndon one day, Chantilly the next | No — locked into one lease |
| Daily operating hours | Capped at 4 hrs/day per location in Fairfax | You set your own hours |
| Weather dependency | High | None |
| Builds a loyal, findable location | Harder — customers must track your schedule | Easier — fixed address, repeat foot traffic |
| Ongoing cost if slow | Rental days can be skipped entirely — no fixed rent | Rent is due regardless of sales |
Renting on-demand is genuinely the lowest-risk way to test Chantilly and Herndon side by side for a few weekends — no fixed rent, no trailer to store, and you can stop anytime if the numbers don't work. It's a strong complement to your storefront research, not necessarily a replacement.
Food menu items (Madras Brewery)
COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) is calculated per item from recipe cost, packaging, waste, and yield. Monthly revenue and COGS feed the P&L, inventory, funding, sensitivity, and projection everywhere.
| Item | Sell price $ | Recipe cost $ | Packaging $ | Waste % | Yield % | Daily units | Days/mo | Unit COGS $ | Food cost % | Monthly rev | Monthly COGS | Contribution |
|---|
Labor roles
| Role | People | Hrs/day | $/hr | Days | Loaded $ |
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Fixed cost centers
| Center | Category | $/mo | Notes |
|---|
Risk register
| Factor | Cat | L | I | Score | Effect | Mitigation |
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By category
Top scores
Uses
Monthly CF
| Mo | Rev | Cost | Net | Cum |
|---|
Sensitivity
| Driver | −15% | Base | +15% | Swing |
|---|
| Year | Revenue | COGS | Labor | Occupancy | Other | Op. profit | After tax | Cumulative |
|---|